Reimagining Men’s College Basketball’s Postseason: NCAA And NIT

To start out 2023 off with some controversy, the NCAA’s Division I Transformation Committee really useful and the DI Board then endorsed a suggestion that championship fields in team sports be expanded to include up to 25 percent of the entire variety of collaborating colleges—so long as at the least 200 DI colleges sponsor the game. Implementing such a change for males’s basketball—at the moment sponsored by 351 full Division I members (with 11 colleges reclassifying up and Hartford dropping right down to Division II)—would result in an 88-team area, with a 90- or 91-team occasion on deck as soon as Lindenwood, Queens, Southern Indiana, Stonehill, and Texas A&M-Commerce earn postseason eligibility in time for 2027’s version of March Insanity.

When you assume again to the final time NCAA Match growth was mentioned, after 2010’s last 65-team bracket, a 96-team area was proposed, derided, and ultimately discarded in favor of the 68-team area we’ve got now. I wasn’t a fan then, I’m nonetheless not a fan now.

With 338 full Division I members for the 2010-11 season, an NCAA Match that includes a 1 / 4 of those groups would have meant an 85-team area. Now {that a} 96-team and even 128-team area is again into consideration, there’s once more been some outcry from those that would slightly preserve things they way they are—even when the present format is a nonsensical, synthetic creation of its personal. As John Gasaway wrote in his put up in favor of growth:

The superbly symmetrical NCAA bracket died on March 13, 2001, when Northwestern State defeated Winthrop 71-67 in Dayton. It was known as the “play-in game that no one wanted.” Symmetry was sacrificed in favor of minting a thirty second automated bid whereas holding the variety of at-large invitations at 33. As of 2011 three extra at-large slots have been added. Till the sector expands to 128, symmetry is gone. That toothpaste is out of the tube.

This little bit of potted historical past is obtainable as a reminder that the present dimension of the sector displays nobody’s perfect. Just like the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea, the quantity 68 is a dusty relic born of battle, exhaustion, and a protracted and tense standoff. But in the present day that quantity is reflexively and furiously defended to the hilt as if it have been handed down on stone tablets by Naismith.

On this web site, we embrace imperfection. We additionally settle for that sound and fury might certainly signify nothing. Certainly, as Matt Norlander’s reporting for CBS signifies, there’s not a lot urge for food for any growth in the mean time, and there might by no means be for growth to 96 or 128—with 80 performing because the higher restrict of palatability.

80 … 80 … This quantity gave me an thought, because it’s 16 greater than the proper 64-team bracket, and would require simply 12 new groups to develop past 68. So, I got down to reimagine the faculty basketball postseason so it might meet just a few easy circumstances:

• Respect the common season—growing its significance if doable
• Worth convention tournaments’ distinctive place in faculty sports activities
• Carry the NIT again to a degree of significance and
• Maintain the format as acquainted as doable.

What I got here up with is an 80-team event that borrows from European sports activities (most notably, soccer) by partially merging the NCAA Match and the NIT.

First, Let’s Repair Auto Bids

At present, the 32 automated bids within the area of 68 go to convention event winners. This results in occasional discussions of tips on how to embrace mid- or low-major groups that put collectively excellent or one-loss common seasons, then handle to slide on a banana peel as they try and clear one among their last remaining hurdles.

Naturally, this isn’t an issue for energy conferences. Because the 2011 growth, simply one Energy 6 common season champion was not chosen to the sector, Washington notorious 2011-12 squad. Curiously, solely the 2018-19 Pac-12 has come near repeating the feat.

Increasing our view additional to all multi-bid conferences within the 68-team period, exterior of that 2011-12 Husky workforce, each common season champ earned a bid, even when some, like 2011 UAB, 2013 Center Tennessee, and 2019 Belmont, needed to play within the First 4.

So, the primary change I’m making is flipping the auto bid established order. Now, common season winners—convention event No. 1 seeds—get the auto bid, whereas convention event champions are added to the at-large pool for analysis, with these not chosen assured a spot in our barely expanded NIT, as eradicated common season champs are in the present day. Thus, constant success will probably be rewarded over getting sizzling over a two-to-four-game span.

How Would This Tweak Have Modified 2022’s Area?

Of 2022’s 32 convention event No. 1 seeds:

• 15 minimize down the nets to assert the league double
• 5 have been chosen at-large—4 groups from the Energy 6 and Davidson from the Atlantic 10
• 1 earned its convention’s auto bid as a result of the event winner wasn’t but NCAA/NIT eligible (Jacksonville State)
• 11 didn’t win the event and have been relegated to the NIT.

The variety of NIT auto bids has been comparatively constant because the NCAA area expanded in 2011. It’s by no means been larger than 2016’s 15 and has totaled between 10 and 12 entrants seven occasions. Be aware that when the NIT first awarded auto bids to eradicated common season champs within the 4 seasons earlier than the NCAA area of 68 (2007-2010), these numbers have been even decrease. Eight groups dropped down into the NIT in three of these years, with a mere 5 being relegated in 2009.

With 11 convention event No. 1 seeds changing event winners in our hypothetical 2022 area, we’ve got some modifications, however no at-large workforce drops out due to our 12-team growth to 80.

• Common-season champs IN: Lengthy Seashore State (Large West), Towson (CAA), North Texas (C-USA), Cleveland State (Horizon), Princeton (Ivy), Iona (MAAC), Toledo (MAC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Nicholls State (Southland), Alcorn State (SWAC), Texas State (Solar Belt)

What About These Convention Match Winners?

The 11 event winners from these conferences be part of the 5 winners of multi-bid convention tournaments within the reimagined at-large pool—changing their leagues’ common season champs. This consists of event champs UAB and Loyola Chicago, who drop down as North Texas and Northern Iowa now personal the auto bids for Convention USA and the Missouri Valley as convention event No. 1 seeds,

These groups will probably be evaluated for choice for the 80-team area. Whereas seven made the minimize, 9 will drop down into our new NIT.

• Convention event champs who keep IN (7): Virginia Tech (ACC), Richmond (A ten), Villanova (Large East), Iowa (Large Ten), UAB (C-USA), Loyola Chicago (MVC), Tennessee (SEC)
• Convention event champs who drop into the NIT (9): Cal State Fullerton (Large West), Delaware (CAA), Wright State (Horizon), Yale (Ivy), Saint Peter’s (MAAC), Akron (MAC), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (Southland), Texas Southern (SWAC), Georgia State (Solar Belt)

Redesigning The Bracket

That brings us to how the 80-team area will work. For this, I flip to Ken Pomeroy.

That strategy provides us a bracket that appears like this. Auto bid holders (32) are in daring. Spots crammed throughout our expanded Preliminary Spherical are famous in yellow.

The results of putting 48 groups—32 auto bid winners and 16 at-large alternatives—into the sector means the highest six seed strains and contours 12 via 16 are crammed. Nonetheless, there are 4 auto bid winners who weren’t seeded in both of those teams. Murray State was a 7, Boise State an 8, and Davidson a ten. We even have a regular-season champ who ended up larger than an 11 in my evaluation—North Texas. So, I should bracket round them.

With 48 groups bracketed into our 80-team area, we’re left with 32 groups taking part in for 16 spots within the 64-team last NCAA bracket.

• The 16 victors be bracketed into the sector as 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11 seeds.
• The 16 losers will drop right down to be the 1 via 4 seeds in a rescheduled, expanded, restructured NIT.

So, Who Are These Further At-Massive Groups?

Borrowing from Gasaway this time:

Increasing the 2022 area would have watered it up

Even in an expanded area that didn’t occur, the weakest KenPom at-large by far would have been real-life No. 11 seed Rutgers. This isn’t to say the committee shouldn’t have given the Scarlet Knights a bid. It’s to say at-large bubbles for each a 68- and, for instance, an 80-team bracket do and would middle on the identical tranche of groups within the 30s, 40s, and 50s at KenPom.

Gasaway’s eight new at-large alternatives are the NIT’s No. 1 and a couple of seeds—Dayton, Oklahoma, SMU, Texas A&M, Xavier, North Texas, BYU, and Wake Forest. Nonetheless, since I dealt with auto bids otherwise than he did and the Imply Inexperienced received the C-USA common season title, they don’t depend as an at-large. Even after including seven NIT 1 and a couple of seeds and worthy event champions in Loyola Chicago, Richmond, UAB, and Virginia Tech to the sector as at-large groups, there may be nonetheless room for 3 of the NIT’s 3 seeds. Due to larger NET rankings, VCU, Mississippi State, and Florida make the sector on the expense of Saint Louis.

Amazingly, all three of those groups nonetheless rank forward of Rutgers in KenPom’s Choice Sunday rankings! The Scarlet Knights have been 74th, with the Rams 67th, Bulldogs forty sixth, and Gators 56th.

Whereas the 68-team actual world bracket featured 10 multi-bid conferences, our 80-team area options 12. The SEC was the one energy convention to select up a couple of new bid, whereas three non-power conferences—the Atlantic 10, Convention USA, and Missouri Valley—noticed their bid totals double.

Large Ten: 9 (9)
SEC: 9 (6)
Large 12: 7 (6)
Large East: 7 (6)
ACC: 6 (5)
A ten: 4 (2)
MW: 4 (4)
WCC: 4 (3)
American: 3 (2)
Pac-12: 3 (3)
C-USA: 2 (1)
MVC: 2 (1)

However will growth all the time be a optimistic for mid-majors? Possibly. Possibly not. Latest traits are good, however there are current causes to not be fairly so optimistic.

Because the growth to 68 in 2011, the variety of non-Energy 6 groups discovered within the teams of eight on both facet of the minimize line has different enormously. Whereas 2022 (6 of 16), 2021 (10 of 16) 2016 (10 of 16), and 2015 (8 of 16) have been mid-major pleasant, 2019 and 2014 (3 of 16) and 2018 and 2017 (2 of 16) have been decidedly not.

What Does The Ultimate Bracket Look Like?

As you’ll be able to see above, I took the 2022 bracket and first added the brand new automated bid winners, seeding them roughly the place I had them in my projections earlier than they have been eradicated from their convention tournaments. In consequence, some convention champs, like Iona and Towson ended up in a greater place than their respective leagues’ event winners did. Within the majority of circumstances although, there was little or no distinction between the 2 groups’ positions on the seed record.

With 16 “First 4”/Preliminary Spherical video games, taking part in solely in Dayton isn’t sensible. So, within the 80-team bracket, Thursday/Saturday websites will now probably host Tuesday video games, whereas Friday/Sunday websites will do the identical on Wednesday. I say ‘probably’ as a result of the way in which pods are distributed can complicate issues.

In 2022, two No. 1 seeds have been slotted for Fort Price, whereas two No. 4 seeds anchored proceedings in Buffalo. This created a difficulty, as the entire 8 and 9 seeds within the bracket are crammed by preliminary winners, whereas not one of the 12 seeds match inside this class. So, Fort Price would host 4 video games on Tuesday, whereas Buffalo could be the one website with none. Certain, I might have shipped both Kansas or Baylor to Western New York, however that defeats the aim of holding larger seeds nearer to residence when doable.

You can have a TV schedule that appears like this:

• Tuesday afternoon: Fort Price (2 video games) and Indianapolis (2 video games)
• Tuesday night: Fort Price (2 video games) and Portland (2 video games)
• Wednesday afternoon: Greenville (2 video games) and Milwaukee (2 video games)
• Wednesday night: Pittsburgh (2 video games) and San Diego (2 video games)

One rule that I applied was that no decrease seed might face the next seed assigned to preliminary spherical. To avoid this, I moved Boise State to seed line 7 to pair it in opposition to fellow auto bid winner Davidson, with Michigan State dropping into an 8/9 preliminary recreation.

With solely 4 at-large groups within the First 4, it’s not a difficulty to pair them in opposition to one another based mostly on the seed record, since they’re shut sufficient within the total rating. Nonetheless, an expanded preliminary spherical creates an even bigger hole—starting from NCAA 7 seeds to NIT 3 seeds. So, I bracketed matchups on this style with out giving groups preliminary seed numbers.

• No. 7 seeds (2 of 4): 2 NCAA 7 seeds (Ohio State and USC) paired in opposition to an NCAA 12 seed (Richmond) and an NIT 3 seed (Florida)
• No. 8 seeds (4 of 4): 1 NCAA 7 seed (Michigan State) and three NCAA 8 seeds (North Carolina, San Diego State, and Seton Corridor) paired in opposition to 2 NIT 3 seeds (Miss. State and VCU) and a couple of NIT 2 seeds (BYU and Wake Forest)
• No. 9 seeds (4 of 4): 4 NCAA 9 seeds (Creighton, Marquette, Memphis, and TCU) paired in opposition to 1 NCAA 12 seed (UAB), 2 NIT 1 seeds (SMU and Texas A&M), and 1 NIT 2 seed (Xavier).
• No. 10 seeds (3 of 4): 3 NCAA 10 seeds (Loyola, Miami, and San Francisco) paired in opposition to the 2 remaining NIT 1 seeds (Dayton and Oklahoma) and 1 NCAA First 4 workforce (Notre Dame)
• No. 11 seeds (3 of 4): 5 of the ultimate 2022 at-large groups (Indiana, Iowa State, Michigan, Rutgers, and Wyoming) and Virginia Tech (an at-large on this event regardless of successful the ACC Match) are paired in opposition to one another.

That provides us a bracket that appears like this. I attempted to maintain this model devoted to 2022’s precise bracket, however I needed to make some changes to keep away from rematches and to get BYU into each a Thursday/Saturday pod and area. Sadly, that put them in Gonzaga’s pod in Portland.

• Preliminary matchups are highlighted yellow.
• Common-season champs/auto bid winners are bolded.
• Convention event winners chosen at-large are italicized.

Okay, So What Are You Doing To The NIT?

I shortly realized that an 80-team NCAA area may suck the life out of what’s already a once-great occasion that’s trying to find relevance. So, I figured that treating giving the highest of the NIT bracket the Champions League/Europa League remedy, whereas holding the idea of auto bids may be one thing to discover.

• The 16 groups that fall within the NCAA Preliminary Spherical drop into the NIT and are slotted as its 1 and a couple of seeds.
• The rest of the sector is made up of the convention event winners who weren’t chosen for the expanded NCAA area (9 in 2022) and at-large groups.
• Nonetheless, a postseason the place 80 groups start within the NCAA with solely 16 starting within the NIT results in a lack of postseason alternatives, as there are solely 96 groups chosen in comparison with the 100 concerned in a 68-team NCAA and 32-team NIT.
• So, increasing the NIT area again to 40, as was the case between 2002 and 2006, is necessity. Not solely might some seasons function extra convention event auto bid winners than a 32-team area can deal with, however such growth helps preserve at-large bids round. With 80 groups starting within the NCAAs and 24 starting within the expanded NIT, we’ve got barely expanded the variety of groups within the postseason to 104.

What Does The NIT Bracket Look Like? How Would It Work?

• The 40-team NIT area could be anchored by the 16 NCAA preliminary spherical losers, the highest eight of which might be No. 1 seeds, who would every a five-team pod.
• With the No. 1 and No. 2 seed strains crammed by groups eradicated from the NCAAs and two groups taking part in for a No. 4 seed in every pod, solely the eight No. 3 seeds would earn a direct place within the NIT Spherical of 32.

Yellow highlighted containers characterize the 16 NCAA preliminary spherical video games. The pink containers characterize the NIT preliminary spherical video games for No. 4 seeds. No. 3 seeds received’t play an additional recreation, in order that they’re present in white cells.

• Because the NIT’s normal first spherical dates—the Tuesday via Thursday after Choice Sunday—are actually crammed by the NCAA Preliminary Spherical, these pods will probably be scheduled for the times between the NCAA Match’s first and second weekends. This can permit the NIT Committee time to correctly bracket groups and get them to their websites.
• The NIT’s Ultimate 4 turns into an Elite Eight with a schedule impressed by lots of ESPN’s early season tournaments: quarterfinals on day one (Wednesday) and semifinals on day two (Thursday), with the championship after a relaxation day (Saturday, in the course of the afternoon earlier than the Ultimate 4 itself). This is able to give us a postseason schedule that appears like this (with modifications in daring).

Week 1, Tuesday and Wednesday: NCAA Preliminary Spherical
Week 1, Thursday and Friday: NCAA First Spherical
Week 1, Saturday and Sunday: NCAA Second Spherical; NIT Preliminary Spherical (for No. 4 seeds) and Spherical of 32

Week 2, Monday: NIT Spherical of 32
Week 2, Tuesday and Wednesday: NIT Spherical of 16
Week 2, Thursday and Friday: NCAA Candy 16
Week 2, Saturday and Sunday, NCAA Elite 8

Week 3, Wednesday: NIT Quarterfinals
Week 3, Thursday: NIT Semifinals
Week 3, Saturday: NIT Championship, NCAA Ultimate 4
Week 4, Monday: NCAA Championship

Further schedule flexibility or will increase in streaming could also be essential with the ladies’s postseason taking place concurrently

Now, A Twist

To make the NIT a extra worthwhile endeavor, each its champion and the defending NCAA champion will probably be assured at the least a spot within the subsequent season’s NCAA Match Preliminary Spherical.

However There’s A Caveat!

These defending champs should end the common season with a document of over .500 in opposition to Division I groups. If a workforce fails to do that, it received’t find yourself within the area. If a workforce goes within the different course and wins an auto bid or finishes in at-large place, the NCAA or NIT auto bid spot will go away for the season.

Nonetheless, with an expanded area this shouldn’t result in a lot controversy. Of the three 68-team period NCAA champions that didn’t make the sector the subsequent season, two (2013 Kentucky and 2015 UConn) ended up within the NIT (as a 1 and 4 seed, respectively), whereas the third (2020 Virginia) would have been chosen had there been an NCAA Match.

Issues are a little bit dicier for the previous 10 NIT champs. Two (2016 Stanford and 2019 Penn State) completed at or beneath .500 and wouldn’t have gotten in. Then again, 4 (2012 Wichita State, 2014 Baylor, 2018 TCU, and 2022 Memphis) all reached the NCAAs, the identical goes for 2020 Texas (who was chosen in 2021). Then there are 2013 Stanford and 2017 George Washington, that Cardinal workforce ended up again within the NIT, whereas the Colonials ended up within the CBI.

In different phrases, most defending NCAA and NIT champs handle enterprise, which means this profit will probably be restricted.

What do you concentrate on this plan? What do you wish to see out of event growth if it occurs?